商学大讲堂--张新雨：COVID-19 Pandemic Forecasting in Europe: A Transfer Learning with Weights Model Averaging Approach

“商学大讲堂“系列学术讲座（第161讲）

讲座题目：COVID-19 Pandemic Forecasting in Europe: A Transfer Learning with Weights Model Averaging Approach

主讲嘉宾：张新雨

讲座时间：2021年6月18日（星期五）16:00-18:00

讲座地点：商学院116东方厅

欢迎感兴趣的老师和同学参加！

商学院

2021年6月16日

主讲嘉宾简介

张新雨，中科院数学与系统科学研究院/预测中心研究员。在中科院系统所获得博士学位，曾在TAMU做博士后研究。主要从事计量经济学和统计学的理论和应用研究工作，具体研究方向包括模型平均、模型选择和组合预测等。担任期刊《Journal of Systems Science and Complexity》领域主编、期刊《SADM》、《系统科学与数学》、《应用概率统计》和《Econometrics》的副主编、编委或客座主编，双法学会数据科学分会副理事长和国际统计学会当选会员。

讲座主要内容

We forecast the daily confirmed new cases of the COVID-19 pandemic in major European countries using Transfer Learning (TL) and an model averaging (MA) approach. The TL-MA outperforms other single transfer learning models and provides accurate and stable forecasts. The forecasting is especially accurate for those countries which have implemented inadequate containment measures. For those countries which have adopted effective containment measures at earlier stages, all forecasting models lose certain a level of accuracy.